HEAT (Hazard Estimation After TBM Engagement) is a software system for the calculation and visualisation of the dispersion of chemical warfare agents, which can be released following an engagement of TBM (Tactical Ballistic Missiles) with unconventional warheads. Such functionality is indispensable for assessment of the effectiveness of extended air defence weapons systems, as well as for operational use in planning and early warning in the field of passive defence.

HEAT was developed by tms within the scope of R&D studies on behalf of the Federal Office of Defence Technology and Procurement. The purpose of the studies was to develop models for calculating the transport, dispersion and deposition of chemical and biological warfare agents from unconventional warheads, and the behaviour of the debris of engaged TBM with conventional warheads. Although originally only intended to support the studies, the software was developed further as a standalone system and enhanced to include operational elements. Apart from its use in national simulations for the Medium Extended Air Defense System (MEADS), this operational version of HEAT was used in 2000 to 2008 during the JPOW 5 - JPOW 10 (Joint Project Optic Windmill) passive defence exercises. In the spring of 2003, HEAT was requested by NATO during operation "Iraqi Freedom" and was deployed to Turkey.

The calculation engine on which the operational version of HEAT is based was isolated as an independent module and is therefore available as a dispersion module for all kinds of different applications. Among other things, this core has been integrated in the German Air Force's new Surface-to-Air-Missile Operation Centre (SAMOC).

The dispersion model on which HEAT is based is a particle model. At the start of the simulation of a precipitation process, a cloud is generated from a variable number of particles/warfare agent droplets. The form, size and composition of the cloud depend on various factors such as the warhead's damage degree, the engagement height, type of warfare agent, velocity of the TBM and Interceptor, etc. The individual particles precipitate depending on their size and the meteorological conditions. During this precipitation process, the particles can change as a result of evaporation effects and aerodynamic heating. If they hit the ground they can continue to evaporate and therefore be the source for secondary dispersion. The calculation process is used, among other things, to provide a time-variable deposition, concentration or concentration time product matrix.

Figure 1: Enhanced and detailed hazard prediction with HEAT

In the latest version of HEAT (Version 5.5), the calculation is not limited to TBM as the source of the warfare agent or hazardous material dispersion. Ground-near sources, such as storage facilities, chemical factories and tankers can be defined as the starting point for the calculation. HEAT therefore supports the entire field of enhanced hazard prediction.

In addition to dispersion calculation, HEAT is also capable of performing evaluations according to NATO ATP-45 and Stanag 2133, as used in the detailed methods of hazard prediction. NBC2 and NBC3 reports can be generated, which can be exchanged with other systems via the integrated communications module.

The following is a list of HEAT's most important properties:

  • Lagrange-type dispersion calculation (particle model)
  • Simulation of warfare agent dispersion irrespective of the height of the source (near the ground, within and above the atmosphere)
  • Modelling of the biological dispersion taking into account UV irradiation, coagulation and dry deposition
  • Usage of terrain data and 4D wind vector fields in the dispersion calculation
  • Calculation and visualisation of warfare agent or contaminant deposition, concentration, dosage and number of casualties
  • Generation of warning messages for the affected population or units
  • NBC reports according to ATP-45 standard
  • Complex results and asset management
  • Comprehensive communications module with AdatP3 and DIS interface
  • Tried and tested during NATO exercises and deployments

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